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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|