🔗 Share this article

When dawn illuminated the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, negotiators remained stuck in a enclosed conference room, oblivious whether it was day or night. They had been 12 hours in difficult discussions, with scores ministers representing multiple blocs of countries ranging from the poorest nations to the most developed economies.

Patience wore thin, the air stifling as sweaty delegates acknowledged the grim reality: they would not reach a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The international climate negotiations teetered on the brink of complete breakdown.

The sticking point: Fossil fuels

As science has told us for well over a century, the greenhouse gases produced by burning fossil fuels is increasing temperatures on our planet to dangerous levels.

Yet, during nearly three decades of regular climate meetings, the crucial requirement to cease fossil fuel use has been addressed only once – in a decision made two years ago at Cop28 to "move beyond fossil fuels". Representatives from the Arab Group, Russia, and multiple other countries were determined this would not be repeated.

Growing momentum for change

Meanwhile, a increasing coalition of countries were equally determined that progress on this issue was crucially important. They had formulated a initiative that was gathering expanding support and made it evident they were willing to dig in.

Less wealthy nations urgently needed to move forward on securing funding support to help them cope with the already disastrous impacts of extreme weather.

Breaking point

By the early hours of Saturday, some delegates were prepared to withdraw and force a collapse. "We were close for us," stated one energy minister. "I considered to walk away."

The critical development happened through discussions with Saudi Arabia. Shortly after 6am, principal delegates left the main group to hold a confidential discussion with the chief Saudi negotiator. They encouraged text that would obliquely recognise the global commitment to "move beyond fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Unexpected agreement

Rather than explicitly namechecking fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the previous commitment". Following reflection, the Saudi delegation surprisingly accepted the wording.

Participants showed visible relief. Cheers erupted. The agreement was completed.

With what became known as the "Belém political package", the world took another small step towards the phaseout of fossil fuels – a faltering, inadequate step that will barely interrupt the climate's continued progression towards catastrophe. But nevertheless a important shift from complete stagnation.

Key elements of the agreement

• In addition to the oblique commitment in the legally agreed text, countries will start developing a plan to systematically reduce fossil fuels
• This will be mostly a voluntary initiative led by Brazil that will deliver findings next year
• Addressing the required reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to not exceed the 1.5C limit was similarly postponed to next year
• Developing countries secured a threefold increase to $120bn of annual finance to help them manage the impacts of extreme weather
• This amount will not be delivered in full until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "just transition mechanism" to help people working in high-carbon industries transition to the renewable industry

Mixed reactions

As the world hovers near the brink of climate "irreversible changes" that could destroy ecosystems and throw whole regions into chaos, the agreement was far from the "giant leap" needed.

"Cop30 gave us some modest progress in the right direction, but considering the scale of the climate crisis, it has not met the occasion," cautioned one climate expert.

This imperfect deal might have been the best attainable, given the political challenges – including a Washington administration who ignored the talks and remains wedded to oil and coal, the rising tide of nationalist politics, continuing wars in multiple regions, unacceptable degrees of inequality, and global economic uncertainty.

"Fossil fuel corporations – the oil and gas companies – were finally in the spotlight at Cop30," says one environmental advocate. "This represents progress on that. The opportunity is available. Now we must turn it into a actual pathway to a more secure planet."

Major disagreements revealed

Although nations were able to welcome the gavelling through of the deal, Cop30 also exposed significant divisions in the only global process for addressing the climate crisis.

"Climate conferences are consensus-based, and in a era of international tensions, consensus is ever harder to reach," observed one international diplomat. "It would be dishonest to claim that this summit has achieved complete success that is needed. The disparity between where we are and what research requires remains concerningly substantial."

Should the world is to avoid the most severe impacts of climate crisis, the UN climate talks alone will prove insufficient.